2016年12月31日星期六

写给上班族的故事 - 勤工作不如精投资 - A story to all salarymen


2016年来到了最后一天,在这里笔者要与大家分享一个让人惊叹连连的上班族故事。

小杰是一名90后,才刚出来社会几年,薪资并不高,月薪目前只有RM3,500。小杰有个女上司,名叫大莉大莉虽才芳年29岁,却是公司的女强人,已经是一名经理,其月薪达到RM7,000,为小杰的一倍。

小杰勤奋于工作,希望以后也可以像大莉一样升职加薪,可是他也相当注重work life balance,偶尔会留下加班,可如果没特别事情的话,小杰会准时回家。有时会约朋友聚餐打球,而另外有空闲时间时就会阅读股市新闻和学习股市投资。



大莉则是一名工作狂,时常工作到8+,有时还工作至三更半夜。拿着高薪,可是压力可不小。在加上长工作时间,有时遇到不顺心的事会拿下属出气。团队中经验最浅的小杰常常都招到大莉的辱骂,说小杰真是一名典型的90后,不肯为工作卖命,甚至还有一次还咒骂小杰说永远别想发达。


面对这位女上司,小杰并没有给予过多的反驳,仍然坚持自己的方向与目标,那就是勤于工作之外,也会腾出时间给自己休闲娱乐和学习投资,以便日后可达到早日退休和财务自由。
大莉的目标是,把工作排在人生第一位,尽所有能力赚最多的钱,努力储蓄以达到退休后无忧无虑。

小杰一个月可存RM1,000用于股市投资,虽然回酬起起伏伏,可年回报平均也有10%的。
大莉小杰一样节俭,以同样的储蓄比率每月存了RM2,000以作投资。可是她只会工作,根本不会投资也不敢投资。所以只要银行有做定期存款优惠时,大莉二话不说就把积蓄全数转去定期户口稳稳吃利息,年回报平均5%

如果。。。。
如果小杰大莉都保持同样的积蓄和投资回报,25年后谁的资产会比较多呢?

答案竟然是小杰
小杰25年后的资产 RM 1,298,181.17

大莉25年后的资产 RM 1, 202, 722.92 (比小杰还要少7%!!)
大家都在同一时间储蓄,大莉投入的数额比小杰还要大一倍,而小杰基于平时有专研股市投资,所以有着比大莉多一倍的回报。结果,大莉25年来辛辛苦苦工作换来的却是比下属小杰还要少的资产。


当然这则故事不是要告诉大家不要勤奋工作,而是从这则故事你会发现精于投资是多么重要的一件事,可让你的财务目标事半功倍。这也不只是复利的力量,而是精于投资的力量。

你说你根本不会投资?没关系,不过再也别给自己借口了,没有人天生就会投资的。笔者前几天和友人分享了这则故事,他们都惊叹了,并扬言会试着学习投资。

2017年即将来临,别忘了在自己的新年目标中,加上“好好学习股市投资”这一栏哦。
在此,笔者祝大家2017年身体健康,投资愉快。=)

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-English Version-


Kiat is a Y generation who just has few years working experience. His salary is not high, only RM3500/month. His superior, name Li who age 29 is a manager of the company and her salary is RM7000/month, double of Kiat's salary. 

Kiat is hardworking and hope he could promoted in near term. However, he emphasize work life balance and drive himself not to OT if it's not necessary. During leisure time, Kiat will spend time with friends, else will read news and study stock investment. 


Li is a workaholic who always works beyond 8pm. She is very stress and sometimes will scold her subordinates. Kiat as a newbie was always scolded by Li that Kiat is a lazy and irresponsible person. There was a time that Li insulted Kiat never think about getting rich. 
 

Having this superior, Kiat remains steady and keen with own target. His personal value is he work hard and has to spend time for leisure and more importantly, learn about stock investment so that he can achieve his goal: early retirement and financial freedom.

Whereas Li's goal is simple, career is top priority and save as much as possible so that she is rich after retire.

Every month Kiat able to save RM1,000 and he will invest in stock market. The return is not stable but overall there is average annual return of 10%.

Li able to save RM2,000 per month for investment. She is good in working, but she know nothing about investment and not willing to do so. Hence, once there's bank FD(Fixed Deposit) promotion, Li will deposit all her fund into FD account and enjoy interest rate. The average annual return is 5%.

If....
If Kiat and Li maintain this contribution of investment and get constant annual return for 25 years, who has higher net investment value after 25 years?

Surprisingly, the answer is Kiat.

After 25 years, Kiat's net investment value = RM 1,298,181.17

After 25 years, Li's net investment value  = RM 1, 202, 722.927% lower than Kiat !!)

Both invest at the same time, Li's contribution is double of Kiat's contribution. Kiat willing to take time and effort to learn about stock investment and hence having double investment return than Li.

The ending of the story told us that, Li works hard for 25 years but at the end her net worth is lower than his subordinate Kiat.

 
Of course, we should work hard. The key point is, from this story you will notice that master in stock investment is vital, which allow you to achieve your financial goal more efficiently with less effort. It's not about the power of compounded interest, it's about the power of master in stock investing.


Perhaps you could excuse that you don't know how to invest. It's fine. However, bear in mind that there is no inborn investor. Every investors start from beginning and learning.

Year 2017 is around the corner, please don't forget to include "die die also must learn stock investment!!!!!" in your new year target.


We would like to wish everyone good health and happy investing in 2017. =)


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Monthly Update December 2016


公司名
本月收市价
市值(m)
最新动态
PRLEXUS
1.36
234
HOMERIZ
0.94
282


浅谈家具股的前景-劳工荒的冲击到底有多大?
SCGM
3.40449SCGM(7247)次季表现依然亮眼,季度营业额破4千万新高


本月推荐股:

2016年的最后一个月,我们将重新调整投资组合并会在下星期一公布新组合。谢谢支持:)

2016年12月26日星期一

PRLEXUS(8966)宝翔~ 服装销量不给力,首季营业额和盈利齐下滑。


宝翔2017财政年首季营业额和盈利齐下滑,跌幅分别是16%和17%。这也解释了公司股价在过去一个月持续下滑的原因,目前股价RM1.38(市值:RM235M),相比一个月前的高位RM1.65(市值:RM280M)下跌超过了15%

数据分析:



翻开营业表来看,下跌主因归咎于服饰/服装业务的销量走低。这可能也是导致存货量比上季增加的原因。不过令笔者有些意外的是,虽然公司业绩下滑,但净利率(Profit Margin)却保持稳定。另外也可以发现公司的负债在减少中,流动负债比上季降低了19m。这一季虽然盈利表现不算理想,但NTA还是比上一季增加了,从212m至目前的221m。57m的现金也让财务表处于非常健康的水平,毕竟流动负债只有63m左右,单单现金就能偿还90%短期负债。

Prelexus主要是生产及设计运动服饰,其中家喻户晓的NIKE就是其主要客户。现代人越来越注重健康,运动也算是生活中的一部分。生活水平的提高,已经很少人会穿一件白T-Shirt去运动了,通常会选择换上合适的运动服。知名品牌的运动服除了“适合运动”外也是一种“潮流”,由此可见运动服装在来年还是有稳定的需求量的。

当然,Prelexus只是NIKE的其中一个供应商,并不能代表NIKE。同时也不能享有NIKE的品牌价值与其他竞争优势。

根据Prlexus 季报指出,若没有意外,该公司的成绩单在下季将保持稳定,让我们敬请期待!


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杨恩 & 逆水行舟

冷眼心水家具股 – 浅谈HOMERIZ 的近况和POHUAT季度报告



近期笔者都特别关注家具股的环境走向,因为有几个重要外围因素都会左右大马家具股的表现。
1. 美金/马币汇率
2. 国内外劳荒
3. 美国政治和经济

上周笔者才谈到外劳荒对各个家具股的打击,尤以HOMERIZ影响最为严重。不过,最近HOMERIZ10月起已经获准引进60名外劳,加上美元升值和原料价格下跌,有助推高该公司的核心盈利,所以近期的股价有小小的起色。下个月将出炉季报表现,且看营业额会否回升。

上周四POHUAT出炉季报,表现相当亮眼,营业额上升8.5%,净利更是上升20.2%,并且将会派息2仙。随着良好的季报表现,上周五股价更是上升7仙至RM1.75,为过去六个月新高。净利率的提升归功于赚幅提升和美元升值。

过去2POHUAT业绩以双位数成长,事实上本季度的营业额以单位数成长表示营业额成长速度有所缓慢了!全年的核心净利达到4480万令吉,只达到分析员全年预测的93.4%

相较于其他家私股,POHUAT有以下几个特点
-业务表现更为周期性,第二和第三季度都是谈季。所以这两个季度除了营业额偏低外,净利率也因为工厂使用率低而显得较低。第四季度的营业额虽然微微高过第一季度,可是已经是连续7年都是全年表现最佳的季度。

-更依赖于北美市场

-国内外劳荒的问题对POHUAT冲击相对的小,因为大马工厂只贡献3成营业额,第四季度的营业额贡献更是跌至27%而已。大马工厂营业额下跌10%,可季报并没提到有受到国内外劳荒影响。而越南工厂保持良好的成长趋势,盈利率也提升进而带动整体盈利。


总结:虽然国内外劳荒拖累整体家具业营业额,可是赚幅提升和美元升值有助于提升净利率。以POHUAT为例,本季度只记载8月至10月份的表现,而当时的美元汇率徘徊在RM 4.00RM 4.20之间。11月美国大选后美元汇率都在RM 4.4左右,或许家具股接下来的一两个季报盈利都可以取得提升。

另外,家具股的股息也相当不赖,有4%6%左右的dividend yield。整体而言,现阶段家具股的前景还是okay的。


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西山



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